SpaceX's $120.5B Anthropic deal can end on 90 days' notice

Anthropic's S-1 locks in Amazon, Google and Microsoft. SpaceX, paid $5B by one AI customer last quarter, can be dropped on 90 days' notice from early 2027.

The Editors · Markets · 8 min read · Oct 28, 2026

Rows of black server racks with open cable trays in a data center, on a raised white tile floor — Photo: Carl Lender from Sunrise, USA(opens in a new tab), CC BY 2.0(opens in a new tab), via Wikimedia Commons

By the numbers

90 daysnotice either side needs to cancel Anthropic's SpaceX compute deals, once the firm periods end in January and March 2027

$120.5Bthe most Anthropic agreed to spend with SpaceX's AI unit through 2029

$5.0BSpaceX's Q3 revenue from one unnamed AI customer, 34.5% of the company's total

$269.4BAnthropic's minimums at Amazon, Google and Microsoft, none cancelable on notice

~$40Bprincipal on the five-year GPU lease SpaceX agreed with an Apollo-managed lessor on October 24

Anthropic's IPO filing puts a number on SpaceX's biggest AI contract: up to $120.5 billion through 2029. It also says how easily that money can stop. Once the firm periods end in January and March 2027, either party can cancel each agreement on 90 days' written notice. No other large compute deal in the filing can be ended on notice alone. Amazon, Google and Microsoft are owed fixed minimums "regardless of actual usage."

That matters for SpaceX shareholders because the money already shows up in SpaceX's results. One unnamed AI customer paid SpaceX about $5.0 billion in the third quarter, 34.5% of total revenue. Two days before Anthropic filed, SpaceX signed up for a GPU lease that runs five years. The revenue can leave on a quarter's notice. The lease can't.

What the S-1 says about SpaceX

Anthropic filed its S-1 with the SEC on October 26, 2026. In the section on infrastructure arrangements it lists its compute suppliers one by one. The SpaceX entry reads like the others until the last sentence.

Between May and October 2026, Anthropic signed and amended several agreements with SpaceX.AI LLC, the former X.AI, now a wholly owned SpaceX subsidiary, for compute powered by NVIDIA GPUs. The terms, as filed:

Up to $120.5 billion in total, over terms that run into 2029.
About $3.1 billion a month once all capacity is delivered, which Anthropic expects in December 2026. Fees differ while capacity ramps.
Initial non-cancelable periods end in January 2027 and March 2027, depending on the agreement.
After that, "each agreement may be cancelled by either party upon 90 days' advance written notice."

The word to read is "up to." The $120.5 billion is what Anthropic pays if neither side walks away before 2029.

How the other compute deals are written

The same section of the filing describes Anthropic's other big suppliers. Every one of them is harder to leave.

$161.2B$120.5B$114.5B$110B$44.9B

View as table

Anthropic's largest compute deals, by size
label	Anthropic's largest compute deals, by size
Broadcom equipment leases (non-cancelable)	$161.2B
SpaceXAI (cancelable on 90 days' notice)	$120.5B
Google (non-cancelable minimum)	$114.5B
Amazon (non-cancelable minimum)	$110B
Microsoft (non-cancelable minimum)	$44.9B

Source: Anthropic S-1, filed October 26, 2026

Amazon: at least $110.0 billion between May 2026 and April 2036, "regardless of actual usage." If Anthropic spends less, it pays Amazon the difference.
Google: at least about $114.5 billion between April 2026 and July 2033, with the same true-up.
Microsoft: at least $44.9 billion between November 2026 and May 2033, cancelable only for Microsoft's uncured breach or for tranches never delivered.
Broadcom: five-year equipment leases with about $161.2 billion in rent, non-cancelable by either party except on default.
Nscale and Lambda: up to $44.6 billion and about $41.3 billion, paid as capacity is delivered, cancelable only in limited cases such as missed delivery or failed financing.

Add the first three and Anthropic owes $269.4 billion in minimums it can't cancel on notice. That's our sum of the figures in the S-1. The SpaceX deal is the second-largest commitment on the list, and the only one Anthropic can end with a letter.

Why the cancel clause lands on SpaceX

Anthropic burns cash. The S-1 reports a net loss of $80.7 billion for the six months to June 30, 2026, after $42.0 billion for all of 2025. A company carrying several hundred billion dollars of fixed compute bills has one place to cut if demand or funding disappoints, and the filing names it.

This is our read of the contract terms. Nothing in the filing says Anthropic intends to cancel. Compute is scarce, and Anthropic chose to sign and amend these agreements several times in five months. But if Anthropic ever needs to cut capacity, the contracts decide the order. Amazon, Google and Microsoft get paid either way. SpaceX gets 90 days.

What SpaceX's own filings show

SpaceX doesn't name its big AI customer. Its 10-Q for the quarter to September 30, 2026, filed October 22, lists two customers above 10% of revenue:

Customer A, 16.6% of third-quarter revenue, spread across all three segments.
Customer B, 34.5% of third-quarter revenue, all of it in the Super Intelligence (SI) segment, the former AI unit.

SpaceX's third-quarter revenue was $14,575 million, so Customer B paid about $5.0 billion. The SI segment brought in $7,560 million, which makes Customer B about two-thirds of it. Over nine months Customer B was 24.2% of $27,083 million, about $6.6 billion, so the first half of the year held only about $1.5 billion of it. Those dollar figures are our arithmetic on SpaceX's percentages.

SpaceX doesn't say Customer B is Anthropic. The sizes line up with Anthropic's ramp to $3.1 billion a month, but the identity isn't confirmed in either filing. The 10-Q does describe SpaceX's cloud contracts in general terms: a fixed monthly fee over a contract "typically three years and terminable by either party upon 90 days' notice." So the clause in Anthropic's filing is SpaceX's standard term.

The lease SpaceX signed two days earlier

On October 24, SpaceX signed a binding commitment letter for a master finance lease with an entity managed by Apollo Global Management. Its 8-K, filed October 26, sets out the terms:

The lessor buys GPU pods and related equipment and leases them to SpaceX.
Each tranche runs about five to five and a quarter years.
Rent is paid quarterly in advance: one-twentieth of the tranche's cost each quarter, plus interest at a fixed rate set at pricing.
Principal payments total about $40 billion, with schedules starting in the first half of 2027 as GPUs arrive.

That comes on top of the $37.8 billion in non-cancelable commitments SpaceX already reported at September 30, of which $25.6 billion falls due in 2027, per the 10-Q.

The 8-K doesn't say which customer the new GPUs will serve. Anthropic's capacity is due in full by December 2026, while these GPUs arrive in 2027. Either way the shape is the same: five-year payments on hardware, against cloud revenue that its customers can end on 90 days' notice.

How much of the $120.5 billion is firm

The filing doesn't say whether notice can be served before the firm periods end, and that moves the answer a lot. Here is our estimate under both readings, at the $3.1 billion monthly rate from December:

Notice allowed during the firm period: the deals could end in January and March 2027. That's two to four months at full rate, roughly $6 billion to $12 billion.
Notice only after the firm period: the last day moves to about April and June 2027, roughly $15 billion to $22 billion.

Both are a small part of $120.5 billion. Neither is a forecast that Anthropic will leave. They're the floor the contracts guarantee.

The first trading reaction ignored the clause. SpaceX shares rose 1.2% to $148.66 in premarket trading on October 27 on the headline number.

The case against this read

Three points cut the other way.

First, the clause runs both ways. If GPU capacity stays short, SpaceX can cancel and re-rent the same hardware at a higher price, or point it at Grok. A 90-day contract is an option for the seller too.

Second, Anthropic keeps adding capacity. It amended the SpaceX deals several times between May and October, and its filing describes more compute purchases to come.

Third, short notice is standard for GPU cloud. The 10-Q says it's SpaceX's usual term with customers, so the term was public before Anthropic filed.

Lenders have priced this gap before. CoreWeave's debt yields 15% because lenders price the gap between long hardware financing and the customers who fill the racks. Broadcom took the other side of Anthropic's demand with leases Anthropic can't cancel. SpaceX took the side with the exit.

What to watch

SpaceX's fourth-quarter 10-Q or 10-K: whether Customer B's share keeps rising once the full $3.1 billion monthly rate runs for a whole quarter.
Anthropic's amended S-1: the blanks in its contractual obligations table, including how much it owes in the next 12 months.
The Apollo lease closing, expected before year end, and the fixed rate set at pricing.
January and March 2027, when the firm periods end and the 90-day clock can start.